November 12, 2005: A Look at NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest
NC State
Despite losing one of the most versatile players in NC State's history, Julius Hodge, Coach Herb Sendek has enough talent returning to make a fifth consecutive trip to the NCAA tournament. Three seniors will combine to fill the emotional void left by Hodge. Point guard Tony Bethel’s health will be a factor this year. Still not fully recovered from a late season groin injury, Bethel’s all-around game frees others to score the ball. Cam Bennerman had an injury-filled, erratic junior campaign. He did finish strongly and State hopes he can be a more consistent performer.
The key to State’s offense, however, is Ilian Evtimov. A skilled high post passer, when he is making three’s, Evtimov becomes a nightmare for other post players to guard. He has said he is healthier coming into this season than ever before. Guard Engin Atsur is a coaching staff favorite. Tough and smart with the ball, Atsur has also made big shots for State in his career. If Bethel’s health does not hold up, look for him to run the point. Shoring up the front court are Andrew Brackman, Gavin Grant and Cedric Simmons. Brackman had a strong freshman year, despite a dip in production in mid-season. He has added muscle this year and his increased stamina should help him play stronger through the year. Simmons was a solid low post option for the team and gives them toughness on the defensive end of the floor. Grant is very versatile, but has yet to completely mesh in this offense. He also has to clear up immigration issues before the season begins.
State backs up their returning talent with a very good freshman class. Brandon Costner seems born to play in this offensive system. A 6-9 lefty who can shoot from the perimeter, he could be the heir apparent to Evtimov.Courtney Fells is an athletic 6-5 wing player who was the Mississippi player of the year last season. He, too, is versatile and can play and guard at multiple positions. He might need a little more discipline to fit into the offensive scheme. Sendek went back home to Pittsburgh to get 6-9 Ben McCauley to commit to State. He is a wider body than Costner, but he too can step out and shoot on the perimeter.
It is interesting to note that Herb Sendek’s teams always struggle a little early in the season as they try to find their timing on offense. This group seems to be perfectly suited to the Princeton style and should gel quickly. Health has also been an issue for the Pack over the last few seasons. If this team can stay relatively healthy, they should provide Sendek with a fifth straight NCAA bid, tying Jim Valvano’s record in the 80’s.
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Virginia
The task for new head coach Dave Leitao is simple as he sees it- change the basketball culture at the University of Virginia. The Cavs were never really a factor in March under Pete Gillen, and Leitao’s mission is to turn that around. To that end, Leitao talks of heart, desire, passion and toughness. Those are the qualities he vows his teams will possess.
Virginia did lose its top two scorers from last year, but capable, perimeter laden team remains. With the league-wide drain of point guards, the Cavs may have one of the most talented returning points in Sean Singletary. Healthy after shoulder issues last season, Singletary seems poised to lead this new era of Virginia hoops. Flanking him will be J.R. Reynolds and T.J. Bannister. Reynolds will be their leading returning scorer at 10.7 per game and is also their most reliable 3 point threat. Look for him to have an expanded role in this year’s offense. Bannister is more of a point, but these three will see plenty of time together if Leitao wants to play with tempo. The front court is an issue. With the graduation of Devin Smith and Elton Brown and the transfer of Gary Forbes, the Cavs are very thin up front. Jason Cain, Donte Minter, Tunji Soroye, and Adrian Joseph combined to average nine points and six rebounds per game. All are going to have to make big strides to give this team meaningful production up front.
The recruiting class is Gillen’s and has no proven stars. Laurynas Mikalauskas might be able to provide help quickly. The Lithuanian is 6-8, 250 pounds and could be a low post option for Virginia. 6-5 swingman Mamadi Diane comes from a great high school program in DeMatha, but he averaged only 13 points per game in his senior year.
This year will be more about establishing the intangibles as Dave Leitao embarks on his career at Virginia. The Jim Calhoun disciple had a 58-34 mark in three years at DePaul, going to the post-season all three years. Cavalier fans will not see the post season this year, but the pieces seem to be in place for Virginia to be a factor in March in the near future.
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Virginia Tech
I remember listening to Seth Greenburg, before the start of the ACC season, bemoan the fact that seven teams from the league were in the top 25. Apparently, he did not share his fears with his team as the Hokies finished with an 8-8 league record, tied for fourth, and a trip to the NIT. They lose Carlos Dixon from that squad, but return four starters and get another back from injury.
Anchoring this team will be the backcourt of Zabian Dowdell and Jamon Gordon. Dowdell is a skilled offensive player who should develop into the go to guy for this team. Gordon is much more of a playmaker that is fearless in attacking the rim. He also draws the toughest defensive assignment on most nights. Deron Washington may be the best athlete on the team. He was thin last year and his stamina waned as the season went along. He has added 20 pounds of muscle and is better prepared for the rigors of a full season. Coleman Collins may be one of the most under-appreciated players in the league. Tech’s season turned when he got healthy last season. Collins gives them a nice option down low and is a force on the glass. Finally, they get Markus Sailes back from injury. Sailes is a blend guy who fits in anywhere. A great defender, all he does is make plays on the floor to beat you.
Greenburg knew he needed to get bigger up front and did that with his latest recruiting class. Hyman Taylor, Cheick Diakite, and Terrance Vinson are all taller than 6-8 and should help inside and on the glass. The steal of the class may be A.D. Vassallo. Vassallo played at Hargrave last year and with the Puerto Rican National team this summer. He is very tough and possesses legitimate three point range.
By adding size, Virginia Tech addressed a major weakness, as they were outrebounded by four per game last year. This bigger front line should also allow them to improve their interior defense. This nice mix of upper-class talent and young size should allow the excitement to grow at Cassell Coliseum this year.
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Wake Forest
A record-setting 27 win season last year was tempered by a heart-breaking double overtime loss to West Virginia in the NCAA tournament and the loss of point guard Chris Paul to the NBA. There is still plenty of talent, though, to keep this team in the top 25.
Two all-league performers in Justin Gray and Eric Williams will be the focal point of the offense. After playing the two guard for the last two years, Gray will be asked to man the point. He has had his most focused preseason ever, and seems intent on proving the skeptics wrong about making this conversion. Williams flirted with going to the NBA, but wisely chose to come back for his senior year. Look for Williams to expand his offensive game by adding some range to his jump shot to complement his post moves.
Wake expects to have one of the most physical front lines in the ACC. Joining Williams up front are Kyle Visser and Chris Ellis. Visser, after a disappointing sophomore year, played this summer and has had an outstanding preseason. Ellis stayed healthy and played in 32 games last year. He only averaged 12 minutes a game, however, and the Deacons need him to be on the floor more this year.
X-factors for Wake this year could be Cameron Stanley and Trent Strickland. Stanley sat out last year due to injury, so he is an unknown quantity on the college level. Strickland has always been an aggressive defender and attacker of the basket. Wake needs him to step up and pick up more of a share of the scoring load.
Coach Skip Prosser will have to lean on his freshman class as well. Kevin Swinton is the most heralded of the group with McDonald’s All-American credentials based on a 24 point, 12 rebound average his senior year. Though less sought after, guard Shamaine Dukes could be just as important. A late signee after the departure of Paul, Dukes’ ability to handle the point guard position could allow Gray to play more at the two guard.
Wake’s success hinges on a couple of factors. They need to find a new rhythm without Chris Paul at the controls of the offense. Secondly, they must use the physical presence to become a better defensive team. Even without the departed Paul, this team has the ability and coaching to be a factor in the ACC and the NCAA.
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Next week: Mike's Final Four Picks.
Week One: Boston College, Clemson, Duke and Florida State
Week Two: Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami and North Carolina
